Weekly 'Market Observations':

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Market Observations as of Jun 24 2022
Markets reverse with a brief show of strength late this week. Examples of Gaps that fail and gaps that show follow through higher seen this week. Following sector strength and weakness for higher odds opportunities. Preparing for the unknown. Options continue to under price actual Risk.
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Market Observations as of Jun 17 2022
Markets continue to sell off but with even stronger Breadth and Volume this week. Lots of new 52 week lows and negative extremes in some breadth indicators but not in the Options data. Digging deep into Market Clues seen in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Jun 10 2022
Markets continued their pause, then support breaks late Thursday and markets gap down hard Friday with Volume and Breadth. Identifying strength when every sector is down for the week. S&P delivers a second 2-standard deviation move in 3 weeks. Following money flow.
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Market Observations as of Jun 3 2022
Markets take a pause on this Holiday week. Tracking the few showing strength this week. Long term context of the markets. Clues from Breadth, Volatility and volume. Preparing for what might be next.
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Market Observations as of May 27 2022
Markets change character and Trend as multiple forms of Confirmation are observed. Probabilities and the 'Expected Move'. 2-year changes in the Volatility of the VIX.
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Market Observations as of May 20 2022
Markets again deliver a failed rally that is followed by new 2022 lows on strong selling volume. Most sectors are down this week and money flows out of Equities. A weaker dollar does not help commodities much. Something seems off with the VIX as it may not be effectively pricing risks.
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Market Observations as of May 13 2022
Selling continued strong Monday to eventually find support on Thursday. Friday's bounce stalled out 1/3 of the way into the day and failed to exceed this week's highs. Extremes in various Market Internal indicators this week expose the strength of the Bears vs. the Bulls. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from. Details of Options SKEW are explored and illustrated.
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Market Observations as of May 6 2022
We see another Failed Rally this week that is followed with a drop to lower lows. Options SKEW at an extreme as negative breadth and volume shows itself. Many new Lows for the year are seen delivered this week. Clues as to Sector strength and weakness.
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Market Observations as of Apr 29 2022
Markets experience two failed rallies this week that deliver lower lows as the bears and breadth gain negative momentum. Earnings Reactions, Options 'Expected Move' and extreme moves greater than 2 standard deviations. Lots of clues that show us who is in control.
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Market Observations as of Apr 22 2022
Markets again deliver a failed rally that is followed by strong selling. Extremes in selling momentum and breadth seen this week. Using Trend Lines on Intra-day charts. Sector analysis as it exposes breadth.
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Market Observations as of Apr 14 2022
Markets resume their pattern of failed rallies and selling to lower lows. Options Expiration that was NOT normal. Treasury Yields break 25-year Trends. Commodity strength as Economic concerns grow. How I use Trend Lines.
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Market Observations as of Apr 8 2022
Markets deliver another failed rally that is followed by strong selling. Following the money flow out of various sectors and into others. Examples of both Bullish and Bearish opportunities within the current markets.
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Market Observations as of Apr 1 2022
Markets continue their rally then reverse and sell off the rest of this week. Using Technical Analysis Trend Change Confirmations. Following leadership as markets change character.
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Market Observations as of Mar 25 2022
Markets continue their rally but with less momentum and stalled breadth. Identifying relative strength and focusing in on high odds opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Mar 18 2022
Selling continued Monday to find support. Tuesday the Buyers stepped in with conviction that was shown all week. Finding clues in the charts from key Technical levels when tested or violated, and from observations when 'Normal Behavior' DOES NOT happen. Lots of charts and examples to study.
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Market Observations as of Mar 11 2022
The selling from late last week continued this week followed by a failed rally. This week again ended with selling that saw an overall decline from last week's levels. A few Bullish exceptions this week in a Bearish market context.
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Market Observations as of Mar 4 2022
The violent rally we saw last week stalled this week as it failed to deliver higher highs and the Bears returned and resumed their selling lower. Finding Strength within a Bearish context. Lots of chart examples to show Leadership higher and lower.
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Market Observations as of Feb 25 2022
Markets continue Bearish then turn Bullish with an extreme reaction. Lots of great examples this week with charts to study and examples of the 'Expected Move', 'Bullish Spike', Round Tops & Sharp Bottoms, and measuring Volatility over longer time periods.
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Market Observations as of Feb 18 2022
Markets continue their Bearish trend with a 3rd weekly 'Speed Bump'. Finding both Bullish and Bearish trade opportunities within a Volatile market. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Feb 11 2022
Markets consolidate, retest Resistance, then strong selling returns to end the week near lower lows. A Selling Surge was seen mid day on Friday for 80 minutes of extreme selling actions that left a market on a number of charts that expose where money flowed during that brief panic. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Feb 4 2022
Markets rally, find Resistance, then drop to find Support and bounce. Elevated volatility continues as markets react wildly to Earnings. Using Log charts. Using Fibonacci Retracement tools. Noting where to find Support and Resistance and improving your odds.
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Market Observations as of Jan 28 2022
Markets gap lower with a huge range day to find support and rally back up in a volatile one day move. Most Indexes consolidate the rest of the week with above average volatility and failed rallies. Finding strong moves within the strongest sectors.
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Market Observations as of Jan 21 2022
Markets decline and accelerate down as bearish breadth, volatility and volume increase. Key levels of support are broken as we see a 3-standard deviation move down.
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Market Observations as of Jan 14 2022
Markets drop, bounce and drop again. Finding clues in the charts to help stay on the right side of the markets and find higher odds opportunities when Volatility increases.
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Market Observations as of Jan 7 2022
Markets paused then began to sell off. Reactions to the Fed and Jobs reports. Sector analysis aids in finding high odds opportunities for both the bulls and bears. Examples of Break outs and Break downs. Lots of charts to study and learn from.
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Market Observations as of Dec 31 2021
Markets continue their rally then stall and pull back. Changes in money flow between Sectors. Additional analysis and charts as 2021 comes to an end. Key Observations from long term charts. The Traders Paradox.
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Market Observations as of Dec. 23 2021
Markets drop then rally after a test of support. Observing money flow into and out of key Sectors. Identifying leaders with current relative strength metrics.
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Market Observations as of Dec. 17 2021
Market Trends continue as Events create brief reactions. Follow sector rotation for key clues. Additional clues from Market Internals and the Options markets.
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Blank Study Guide - Dec 10 2021
This is a document with all the charts but no commentary. This can be used as a tool to do YOUR OWN review of the charts and annotate what YOU see in them. DO THIS FIRST - 'before' you read my 'Market Observations' for this same week so you have no bias. Then, as you read my 'Market Observations' for this week you can compare to see what is similar or different to what you saw in the same charts. You may see something I did not see or write about, or I may see something you missed. Either way, you can improve your chart reading skills by performing this exercise each week 'BEFORE' reading my 'Market Observations' or anyone else's comments. This can be a productive way to improve your chart reading skills. I hope you will try it.
Markets as of Dec 10 2021_Blank Study Gu
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Market Observations as of Dec 10 2021
Markets reverse trend and change leadership. Exposing relative strength or weakness to identify the true leaders. Changes in breadth. Signs of a flight to safety. Lots of chart examples to learn from.
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Market Observations as of Dec 3 2021
Markets continue selling with strength, volume and volatility. What to look for to confirm the selling has ended. Finding the few 'Outliers' this week.
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Market Observations as of Nov 26 2021
Markets deliver new all time highs then reverse as selling kicks in. Selling climax on Friday after the Holiday. Follow the money between sectors as leadership changes.
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Market Observations as of Nov 19 2021
Markets resume their rally while leadership becomes narrow and concentrated. We follow the money to see what sectors and stocks see out flows and what stocks and sectors see inflows. Lots of charts to help identify strength or weakness.
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Market Observations as of Nov 12 2021
Markets pause, pull back for 3 days before resuming their rally. Comparing strength of moves down and up. The 'Expected Move' provides support. Decision making and different time frames.
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Market Observations as of Nov 5 2021
Markets continue their rally with greater momentum and breadth. Ways to improve your odds of being in the right positions at the right time. Six key Objectives of Successful Trading.
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Market Observations as of Oct 29 2021
Markets continue their rally to new record highs while not all sectors participate. Observing chart reactions to Earnings events and making note of mixed reactions. Key upcoming events next week.
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Market Observations as of Oct 22 2021
Markets continue a mixed rally with some new all time highs while others begin to see some strong selling. Following the leading sectors and stocks to improve your odds.
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Market Observations as of Oct 15 2021
Markets send mixed messages with a lack of strong convictions. Using information from the Options markets to determine the 'Expected Move' in markets. Finding clues from what we DO NOT See in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Oct 8 2021
Markets continue to drop, find support, and then show a bounce. Gauging these moves to determine relative strength. Following the money and Sectors to keep the odds in your favor.
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Market Observations as of Oct 1 2021
Markets continue to alternate between selling and a pause before resuming. Failed bounces and daily changes in leadership. Lots of charts to study and compare as the Bears show stronger convictions.
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Market Observations as of Sep 24 2021
A Selling climax followed by buyers stepping back into the markets. Recognizing the changes in character in different time frames. Keeping on the side with the better odds. Lots of charts and examples to study.
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Market Observations as of Sep 17 2021
Markets continue to sell off but with a different character than before. Examples of finding clues from what you do NOT see in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Sep 10 2021
Nasdaq strength changed into broad based selling as the week progressed, accelerating on Friday. Finding some of the 'Outliers'. Options Implied Volatility crush and signs of the Sentiment of 'Uncertainty'. Lots of chart examples to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Sep 3 2021
The rally continues to deliver new record highs on relatively narrow breadth. Sector leadership changes daily as we track money flow. Identifying the big 'Leaders'. Minor changes in Breadth indicators. Making Evidence based trading decisions.
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Market Observations as of Aug 27 2021
Markets resume their rally to new record highs on narrow Breadth. Following sector leadership to find higher odds opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Aug 20 2021
Markets continue their Divergence with weaker Breadth. Changes in leadership and clues from what we do NOT see in the charts. Lots of charts and examples to help improve your chart reading skills.
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Market Observations as of Aug 13 2021
We saw a divergence again this week between the bullish S&P and the non-trending Nasdaq. Big tech was not leading while other sectors and stocks carried both the S&P and Dow Industrials to new all time highs. Narrow Breadth again showed us that a minority was leading the markets higher. Lots of charts and examples of strength and weakness to study.
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Market Observations as of Aug 6 2021
Markets pause then resume their bullish trends delivering new all time highs. Narrow breadth continues as we identify the few 'leaders'. Finding opportunities with the dominate trends. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jul 23 2021
We saw several big changes in market character this week, with 'Fear' one day followed 'Exuberance' the next. Recognizing common patterns and being prepared for them to repeat more often than not can be well rewarded. Lots of charts to learn from. Enjoy.
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Market Observations as of Jul 16 2021
The rally lead by a few big tech names is overcome this week. Divergences and clues from the VIX and Breadth. Following money rotation without signs of fear or Panic.
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Market Observations as of Jul 9 2021
Markets continue to rally, as leadership changes and a brief one day correction is absorbed. S&P sector Weighting. Confirming behaviors at key levels. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jul 2 2021
Markets continue their rally with daily changes in leadership. Keeping a long term perspective. Resolution of an extreme in SKEW. Sector leadership so far this year. Lots of charts to study.
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Market Observations as of Jun 25 2021
Markets resume their Trends with opportunities for Dip Buyers. High SKEW exposing Options activities this week. Options strategies that take advantage of Implied Volatility characteristics. Clues from Breadth exposing some divergences in the markets. Lots of charts to Study.
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Market Observations as of Jun 18 2021
DIVERGENCE is Back. We saw a continuation this week up until the Fed showed up and added some Volatility. Warnings signs seen from the Options Markets with SKEW and VVIX, and from market Breadth indicators. Common chart Patterns and their Probabilities of affecting Trends. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jun 11 2021
Markets diverge as some continue their pause while others resume their Trends. We see an extreme in Options SKEW and show how to understand those conditions. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jun 4 2021
Markets continue their pause for an 8th week. We identify trending sectors and stocks within a non-trending market context. The charts help expose 'Mob' behaviors and changes in Leadership. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of May 28 2021
Markets continue to 'Pause' near their prior highs. A few Sectors and 'Outlier' stocks seem to ignore the Indexes as they do their own thing. Using the market pause period to find opportunities. Using tools to help avoid missing break outs. Lots of charts and examples to study.
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Market Observations as of May 21 2021
Markets continue to pause most longer term trends as leadership changes hands. We look at constructing Trend Lines and defining rules and purpose of their use. Common Chart behaviors to recognize and use in trading. Lots of examples to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of May 14 2021
Market Divergence continues as we see a brief dip and recovery this week. Objective and Quantitative methods to make comparisons, expose leadership and find opportunities.
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Market Observations as of May 7 2021
Market Divergence returns as some markets make new all time highs while others sell off. Using Sector leadership and changes as clues to help find Opportunities. Example of Top-Down analysis.
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Market Observations as of Apr 30 2021
Markets continue to pause near their new highs for a 3rd week. Earnings events see mixed reactions. Some of the useful features of my Dual ATR study that can help with various trading decisions. Lots of charts and examples to study.
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Market Observations as of Apr 23 2021
Trends pause as markets react to Earnings and Surprise News Events. Finding useful clues from analysis of market 'Reactions'. Lots of charts and examples to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Apr 16 2021
Markets continue to rally but show changes in momentum. Clues found from changes in breadth and drops in Volatility. Mastering two key skills required for successful trading.
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Market Observations as of Apr 9 2021
The Markets have resolved and are back in normal Convergence with some key observations about Money Cycling out of some sectors and into others. Probabilities of Continuation vs. Reversal of Trends. Weighting of a few big names and their impact. Lots of chart examples to study.
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Market Observations as of Apr 1 2021
The Divided markets continue and then show us clues of resolving late this week. Reviewing long term charts for market context. Finding clues in the charts that help identify changes as they occur. Lots of charts to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Mar 26 2021
Divided markets continue to show their split personality. Monitoring Sectors strength and weakness. Noting failures as clues. Defining your Risk/Reward/Probability Trade-Offs. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Mar 19 2021
Split Markets continue to both deliver new record highs and show failures to rally. Why do I love Failures. Changes in leadership and clues from the charts. Lots of examples to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Mar 12 2021
Markets bounce as leaders deliver new all time highs and laggards only recover a portion of the prior weeks losses. Following sector leadership as the markets are constantly changing.
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Market Observations as of Mar 5 2021
Markets accelerate their selling, then reverse. Finding clues of changes in Trends. Clues found in the Treasuries and the VVIX. Sectors that remain strong and deliver higher highs this week, even in a mostly bearish context. Lots of charts and examples to study.
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Market Observations as of Feb 26 2021
We saw selling accelerate this week as volatility expanded. Not much change in sector leadership this week. We analyze some very strong selling events seen this week down to 1 min. charts. Lots of clues to pay attention to. Enjoy.
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Market Observations as of Feb 19 2021
Markets deliver new highs then immediately pull back and reverse. Changes in leadership. Clues provided by N. Darvas and Leonardo de Pisa. Observing relationships between price and indicators.
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Market Observations as of Feb 12 2021
Markets resume their rally to deliver more new all time highs, but with less momentum as leadership changes. Finding clues in the charts using simple comparisons to identify changes in leadership. Volatility reaches a new low in nearly one year.
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Market Observations as of Feb 5 2021
Market resume their rally with momentum and breadth. Tips for remaining Objective. Common chart patterns for Manias and Echos. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jan 29 2021
Markets briefly deliver new record highs, then experience strong selling. Breadth and momentum analysis of this week's change in behavior. Sector stocks and their weighting in ETFs. Significant increase in Volatility. Different clues for a 'Liquidation' break vs a Rotation into Safety.
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Market Observations as of Jan 22 2021
Markets resume their rally to deliver new record highs. Sector leadership changes as money flows out of some sectors and into others. Recognizing the impact of the size of companies on indexes. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jan 15 2021
Markets pause while some sectors continue higher and others exhibit increased weakness. Volatility measurements that provide forward looking clues. Tips for recognizing and trading common patterns. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Jan 8 2021
The Rally continues after a brief correction. Using Volume, Implied Volatility and Market Cap. to expose clues seen in the markets. An example of using Fibonacci Extensions. Climax warning signs. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Dec 31 2020
Markets continued their rally with some changes in leadership during the Holiday week. We look at long term charts (15yrs) as well as comparisons to identify leadership in 2020. Money Supply and its affects in the markets. Lots of Charts to study and L-earn from. Enjoy.
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Market Observations as of Dec 24 2020
Some markets continue their rally while others 'pause' this Holiday week. Using comparison charts to see Divergences or changes in character. Typical Market reactions to News events. Lots of charts to study and learn from.
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Market Observations as of Dec 18 2020
Markets resume their rally, delivering new record highs. 'Sentiment' Indicators like SKEW, and Technical Indicators like Fibonacci Extensions, knowing how to use them as well as more importantly how NOT to use them. Lots of charts and examples to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Dec 11 2020
Markets continue their trends, then are interrupted with a 'Liquidation Break'. Confirmation and using the VVIX 'Sentiment' Indicator. Making note of what is NOT seen. Lots of charts and examples to study.
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Market Observations as of Dec 4 2020
Markets continue their rally while some key stocks pause and consolidate. Follow the money as a new Month begins and Fund managers re-balance their portfolios. Correlations with Oil and Energy continue while other correlations break. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Nov 27 2020
After a pause, most markets resume their rally to new highs. Money flows out of some sectors and into others. Clues from divergences between indexes.
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Market Observations as of Nov 20 2020
Markets pause after making major moves and both positive and negative News is digested. Identify rotation out of some instruments and into other stocks and sectors. Changes to a major Index as Volatility declines as uncertainty persists.
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Market Observations as of Nov 6 2020
Markets rally with conviction as both normal and abnormal behavior is observed. Changes in breadth are mixed as are reactions to the US Election. Lots of interesting behaviors to analyze in the charts. Remaining Objective while adapting to changing conditions.
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Market Observations as of Oct 30 2020
Markets sell off with Earnings reactions and lots of uncertainty in an elevated Volatility environment. Finding clues within the data to expose market reactions and sector rotation. Lots of charts to show examples of key concepts and clues.
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Market Observations as of Oct 23 2020
Markets pause as volatility remains elevated. Earnings season ramps up with mixed reactions so far. A way to observe evidence of Hedging activity by large fund managers. Lots of charts and examples to learn from.
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Market Observations as of Oct 16 2020
Markets alternate between rally and sell off, with gaps as volatility remains elevated. We look at different types of Gaps, with multiple samples this week seen in the charts. Daily changes in leadership while we also see exceptions that continue to remain in their own trend.
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Market Observations as of Oct 9 2020
Markets change to rally mode early or late this week. Leadership changes are identified to the day they switch. Volatility continues to be elevated as uncertainty underpins the markets. What to do when patterns fail.
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Market Observations as of Oct 2 2020
Markets gap open then pause to define a new balance area. A new month begins with some major sector rotation changes. Options provide some sentiment clues as volatility remains elevated.
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Market Observations as of Sep 25 2020
Markets quickly find a new Balance area this week. Finding clues in a non-trending environment. False Break Downs.
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Market Observations as of Sep 18 2020
Markets pause for 9 days while providing us with clues. Some sectors rally, some sell off. Follow the money for clues. Being prepared for what may be next with multiple scenarios.
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Market Observations as of Sep 11 2020
Market selling resumes and searches for Support. Analysis methods to identify strength within a bearish context. Clues from abnormal VIX behaviors, SKEW and other Market Internals. Finding Clues from what is not seen. Lots of charts and examples to L-earn from.
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Market Observations as of Sep 4 2020
Markets continue their rally until a climax with breadth, then Sellers step in with strong convictions. Warnings and clues from the VIX. Identifying the Leaders and Laggards. Multiple methods to compare relative strength.
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Market Observations as of Aug 28 2020
Markets resume the bull rally as breadth increases and many new record highs are delivered. Changes in the Dow Industrials and how they are adjusted. Stock splits. Clues from the charts as evidence shows Money Flow out of some sectors and into others. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
Market Observations as of Aug 28 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Aug 21 2020
The Divergences in the markets expand as both the Nasdaq and S&P deliver new all time highs. We identify the leaders and the growing divergence they are creating. Stock Split reactions and using creative Technical Analysis tools. Lots of charts and nuggets to L-earn from.
Market Observations as of Aug 21 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Aug 14 2020
Markets pause and change leadership near record highs. Clues from Index and Sector analysis. Money flow out of key Sectors and Into others.
Market Observations as of Aug 14 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Aug 7 2020
Markets resume their rally as more new all time highs are delivered. Clues that expose the leaders and laggards and changes. Some common consolidation patterns. Divergence in Advance Decline data. Breadth changes late this week. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
Market Observations as of Aug 7 2020.pdf
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Market Observations as of Jul 24 2020
Another week with a Rally to new highs and a reversal to deliver losses for the week. Sorting out the leaders and laggards. Earnings reactions. Confirming Support and Resistance. Improving your odds by trading with the Trend.
Market Observations as of Jul 24 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Jul 17 2020
Divergences eventually Converge as leadership changes and money flows out of some areas and into others. No signs of panic. Variations of Consolidation patterns. Clues from weekly comparisons.
Market Observations as of Jul 17 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Jul 10 2020
Markets Diverge as more stocks deliver new all time highs. Breadth is reduced as money flows out of small cap growth and into big tech. Using creative ways to measure divergences and changes in leadership. Lots of charts and analysis to expose concentration risks. Enjoy.
Market Observations as of Jul 10 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Jul 2 2020
The Divergence continues with a few names doing most of the heavy lifting. Definitions for Trends, confirmations, and variations. Market weighting impacts where size matters. Lots of charts to study and L-earn from.
Market Observations as of Jul 2 2020.pdf
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Market Observations as of Jun 26 2020
Markets see bearish convictions increase as selling strengthens. Identifying Divergences, correlations and non-correlations. Finding a few bullish outliers within a crowd of bears. A common sequence of clues found during a change in trend. Lots of chart examples to learn from.
Market Observations as of Jun 26 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Jun 19 2020
Markets pause as 'Leadership' exposes itself. Using various Comparison studies to identify leadership, similarities and differences. Using clues to improve your odds. Trading with the Trend and buying dips upon confirmation. Lots of charts to provide examples of key price behaviors.
Market Observations as of Jun 19 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Jun 12 2020
Markets deliver record highs just before experiencing a volatile correction. Clues seen in the charts before the correction this week. Recognizing normal and abnormal market correlations. Changes in Trends, confirmations and timing. Lots of chart examples to study.
Market Observations as of Jun 12 2020.pd
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Market Observations as of Jun 5 2020
Markets continue higher as major targets are reached, respected or broken. Observing Sector Rotation and changes in leadership as clues. Lots of charts to see a variety of behaviors.
Market Observations as of Jun 5 2020.pdf
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Market Observations as of Feb 9 2018
Volatility has returned to the markets this week with the largest price swings and VIX levels seen in years. We also saw a quick 14 minute flash crash on Monday when the Algos took over, leaving a mess the remaining 43 minutes of the session. In the damage, we compared and identified the stronger stocks that did well this week. We also look at an example of a bearish position.
Market Observations as of Feb 9 2018.pdf
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Market Observations as of Feb 2 2018
Some volatility returns to the markets with a minor correction seen with plenty of marekt breadth. Some sectors and stocks gave back all of their 2018 gains, while others held on. Spotting relative strength and weakness even in a down week. The value of having and sticking to your plan seen at work this week.
Market Observations as of Feb 2 2018.pdf
Adobe Acrobat Document 2.4 MB