Weekly 'Market Observations':

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Market Observations as of Oct 12 2018
Markets begin the week with a pause, then broad based selling accelerates to see volatility nearing Feb levels. A study and comparison of volatile market moves over the past 20 years. What a 'climax' in selling looks like. Using the charts, correlations, and failures to navigate the markets.
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Market Observations as of Oct 5 2018
Markets begin the week from where they left off from last week. Then Mid-week we see a big change, with big Bond volume, changes in the Yield Curve, and broad based selling the latter half of this week. Sector rotation and changes in leadership, exceptions, and trend changes we can study in the charts, both bullish and bearish opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Sep 28 2018
Markets pause in their trends as the end of the month and quarter are digested. FOMC minuets reactions, Sector leadership and major changes in Sector Components. Dramatic economic stimulus this year as low volatility continues.
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Market Observations as of Sep 21 2018
Dow and S&P deliver new record highs, Financials join in on the rotation along with Industrials and Metals that continue their rally. Tech stocks continue to pull back and consolidate. Upcoming re-organization of Market Sectors, and keeping a constructive FOCUS when trading.
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Market Observations as of Sep 14 2018
Markets bounce to form consolidation. Dow theory and economic confirmations. Divergent stocks within one sector. Signs of consumer strength.
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Market Observations as of Sep 7 2018
Markets reverse for a minor correction within a bullish trend. Sector divergences and outliers. Yield curve flatter & historic views. Fibonacci targets deliver. Support that holds or fails. Lots of charts and examples to learn from.
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Market Observations as of Aug 31 2018
Markets continue their rally on mostly light volume, but with some exceptions. Footsteps left by the Quants. Outliers found in some sectors. Fibonacci extension example.
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Market Observations as of Aug 24 2018
This week begins with continued quiet volume and sector leadership rotation. Most markets get into sync on Friday to rally together to produce new record highs and new high closes for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000. The Top Down Analysis process, nested chart patterns and Outliers are among the sample charts we study this week. The Traders Paradox visited.
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Market Observations as of Aug 17 2018
Markets reverse again, and a brief scare shakes the loose hands free. A strong rally follows in some sectors, as leadership changes hands. Clues for identifying Strength.
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Market Observations as of Aug 10 2018
Markets continue their rally the first half of this week, then pause. Friday saw broad based gap down and selling, but no significant 'fear'. Protecting our Objectivity. Recognizing and changing personal bias. Market reactions to news events.
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Market Observations as of Aug 3 2018
Markets begin the week with continued selling, then bounce after finding support. Thursday saw a gap down at the open and rally in most markets. Mixed leadership continues to change every few days. Earnings reactions provide more opportunities. Volatility remains low.
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Market Observations as of Jul 27 2018
Markets break out to new highs, but fail to show follow-thru and begin to show signs of a reversal. Market Breadth and options Volatility add clues to the market behavior this week. Options Position Re-Entry example shared. Achieving Consistent Results.
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Market Observations as of Jul 20 2018
Markets mostly in consolidation this week, with very small changes in value from the prior week. Low volatility environments, options Implied Volatility and SKEW as a Market Sentiment indicator and what could be behind the extreme in SKEW this week. Sector leadership changes as Earnings and reactions create short term opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Jul 13 2018
The Nasdaq rallies to new record highs while the S&P is held back a little and the Dow is held back even more. We look at these divergences, and what could be behind them. We look FAANG stocks and their broad impact. Also we look at record levels of Stock Buy Backs and how those impact the markets in ways you may not realize. Lots of clues seen in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Jul 6 2018
Markets mostly chop sideways in their consolidation ranges until breaking out late Thursday and continue on Friday, as buyers show some conviction. Strongest and weakest sectors evaluated, Market Breadth making new YTD highs, VIX returning to 'normal' and a flattening yield curve.
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Market Observations as of Jun 29 2018
Markets drop a little in front of the end of the 2nd Quarter as indexes change and funds make adjustments. Breadth of the correction studied, and leadership changes observed. Stronger US dollar, increasing oil prices, dropping Gold prices and flattening yield curves. Observing messages in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Jun 22 2018
Most markets pause for a bit of consolidation this week. Industrials, US Dollar and Gold a bit weaker this week. Retail and Tech leaders continue as Semiconductors fade and Utilities improve. Mixed messages about economic growth from Financials. Trade what you see and what the markets offer.
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Market Observations as of Jun 15 2018
Mixed markets this week, as news events and quad witching throws a variety of catalysts at the markets. Sector rotation, Trend confirmations and changes, and ETF sector components are looked at with examples this week.
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Market Observations as of Jun 8 2018
Most Indexes have Broken Out of there consolidation patterns and a few had gone on to also deliver new 2018 highs. Sector rotation shows changes in leadership this week. Examples of using Technical Analysis as a tool for guiding trading decisions. Examples of high odds patterns and the need for patience. Adapting to volatile stocks and capturing news reactions.
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Market Observations as of Jun 1 2018
Markets either break out to higher highs, or remain inside consolidation. Examples of high odds patterns that often work, but not always. Sectors that provide clues, and stocks that ignore their sector trends. A mix of different sentiments this week.
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Market Observations as of May 25 2018
Most markets remain inside consolidation in front of a three day Holiday weekend. Multiple ways to view market volatility as it has returned to 'calm'. Useful ways of using ATR studies. Trend Lines and Resistance 'Break outs' and 'Fake outs' with examples of both.
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Market Observations as of May 18 2018
Markets consolidate this week, as F.A.A.N.G. stocks give back some gains, Oil rises to new highs, Gold drops, the US Dollar strengthens and the Russell 2000 makes new all time highs. We see some sector rotation and look at using trend lines as a way to gauge clues in the charts and price behavior changes.
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Market Observations as of May 11 2018
Markets break out of consolidation. Oil makes new highs, the US Dollar strengthens and the VIX drops lower. Earnings reactions, and playing GAPs are explored.
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Market Observations as of May 4 2018
Markets remain in Consolidation again this week with little net week to week change. The weak sectors continue to show weakness, a stronger dollar, new highs in Oil and strong earnings keep a mix of pressures. We saw several intra-day reversals this week. Finding some stocks that are exceptions to an over all non-trending environment.
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Market Observations as of Apr 27 2018
Another week inside of consolidation with little price changes in the indexes, but with the bears flexing their convictions on Tuesday of this week. Earnings reactions not as most expected. The US Dollar strengthens as interest rates creep upwards.
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Market Observations as of Apr 20 2018
Markets continue from last week's rally then reverse mid week. Some or all of the week's gains are returned the last 2 days of this week, while volatility remains stable. A different way to read the Volatility of the VIX to determine when an expanded volatility event is over. Also clues from high volume spikes in one sector this week. Lots of charts to study and learn from.
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Market Observations as of Apr 13 2018
Markets remain inside consolidation patterns as Volatility slowly decreases. Markets react to Comments Monday night, and oil prices break upwards. Friday's strong earnings are met with strong selling at the open. Following leading sectors helps to improve the odds with Stocks in those sectors, when leadership changes. High odds patterns, and new opportunities found, even in tough markets.
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Market Observations as of Apr 6 2018
Volatile markets continue with alternating and large range days. Prior lows are retested and some hold while other fail to provide support. Long term study of VIX and S&P corrections are evaluated with typical correlations identified. Short term trend changes with Break outs and Fake outs.
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Market Observations as of Mar 29 2018
Volatility continues as broad market selling continues to test or break support. The bounce on Monday was all returned on Tuesday with a pause Wednesday before a smaller bounce on Thursday. The Quarter ends with a bearish month and elevated concerns going into the next month. High Put/Call Ratios may be a clue to a change or just quarter end Funds adjusting their Hedges. What were the Strongest Sectors and Stocks are hit hard the last two days of this quarter.
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Market Observations as of Mar 23 2018
Markets break down out of consolidation with volume and breadth. Volatility expands as support breaks. Strongest and weakest sectors help to find bearish opportunities. Comparing market Volatility to prior events this year. Study some additional Market Internals and Sentiment Indicators to reveal the nature of this week's selling.
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Market Observations as of Mar 16 2018
Volatility wanes as markets remain in Consolidation. Short term bear trend this week as Quad Witching effects Friday's markets that take a pause in the trends. Exposing high odds patterns and using Technical Analysis to reveal market behaviors.
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Market Observations as of Mar 9 2018
Volatility fades as most markets break out of their Consolidation patterns. A study of various forms of Consolidation, and the more likely outcomes. Comparing relative strength during volatile markets and finding the strongest opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Mar 2 2018
Volatility increases this week as ranges expand and two trend reversals occur. We study Trend Lines and Intra-day charts for confirmation signals. How we find the exceptions and strongest stocks within a volatile market. Reacting to faster moves while managing risks.
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Market Observations as of Feb 23 2018
Market Volatility fades as mostly sideways markets persistently retest resistance. Most markets have been range bound for 6 sessions, with a few of the strongest stocks breaking out to deliver new highs. FOMC reactions on Feb 21st studied as a 'Market Internal' indicator "TICK" is introduced, explained and examples given. Stronger vs weaker sectors identified and used to find opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Feb 16 2018
Volatility remains, but not as extreme as last week. Markets bounce, and their recovery this week reflects their relative strength. We look into how markets are Fractal and use multiple time frames to look at common behaviors. Strong sector leads to finding strong stocks to trade. A few of the strongest deliver new all time highs this week. Lots of chart examples to study and learn from.
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Market Observations as of Feb 9 2018
Volatility has returned to the markets this week with the largest price swings and VIX levels seen in years. We also saw a quick 14 minute flash crash on Monday when the Algos took over, leaving a mess the remaining 43 minutes of the session. In the damage, we compared and identified the stronger stocks that did well this week. We also look at an example of a bearish position.
Market Observations as of Feb 9 2018.pdf
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Market Observations as of Feb 2 2018
Some volatility returns to the markets with a minor correction seen with plenty of marekt breadth. Some sectors and stocks gave back all of their 2018 gains, while others held on. Spotting relative strength and weakness even in a down week. The value of having and sticking to your plan seen at work this week.
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Market Observations as of Jan 26 2018
Another bullish week into the New Year. Earnings season ramping up with sympathetic reactions. US Dollar Index delivers new 3 year lows and Oil new 3 year highs as commodities react to the shrinking dollar. Market Trends and comparing various entry triggers pros and cons.
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Market Observations as of Jan 19 2018
What an interesting week we just had. A 4 day Holiday week, a spike in Volatility, an opportunity for the dip buyers, pending US government shutdown, and Earnings season ramping up. Lots of interesting moves in the markets as sectors and stocks change character, or resume their trends. Also a Bonus study regarding issues with comparing relative volatility in markets. Examples of a process for finding new opportunities. Lots of chart and clues to observe.
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Market Observations as of Jan 12 2018
The Bulls continue to show conviction, with lots of new all time highs being delivered most days this past week. We identify the stronger sectors and stocks, and changes since last week. A Bonus study: we explore and show examples of how some charts can give misleading impressions. Valuable chart study tips and examples help the trader determine their own objective impressions of what the market is doing and may be more likely to see next.
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Market Observations as of Jan 5 2018
Large volume and breadth start out 2018 with a bang. We see both the Nasdaq and S&P deliver 4-day action not seen since the US election in Nov 2016. In addition to very low volatility and lots of new all time highs, we see increasing breadth with nearly all sectors but the small cap stocks this week. Let's explore the charts to see what we can learn from the behavior in the markets this week.
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Market Observations as of Dec 29 2017
Markets were mostly quiet this holiday week and volume was light with a few exceptions. We look at how 2017 performed overall and study some of the stronger sectors this year. We saw some action with key commodities this week.
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Market Observations as of Dec 22 2017
Markets start the week with a pop to deliver lots of new all time highs Monday. Most sectors drifted sideways or back down a little the remainder of the week. Two key Sector Break Outs this week, with examples to illustrate a way to identify potential trade opportunities. Several valuable methods shared.
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Market Observations as of Dec 15 2017
The Markets oscillated, pull back, and then launched to new all time highs by the end of this week. Strong and weak sectors and stocks are compared, and an example of Top Down analysis exposing a trade opportunity. Learn something every day.
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Market Observations as of Dec 8 2017
Markets see a minor correction and bounce this week. We compare differences in the timing and in the scope of this correction this week, and the following bounce to the close this Friday. Stronger and weaker sectors and stocks are exposed via the charts and their patterns and clues.
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Market Observations as of Dec 1 2017
This week started out quiet, then major Sector Rotation began on Tuesday. We follow the volume out of some sectors and into others are November ends and December begins. Volatile reactions to various news events this week added to the market moves on Thursday and Friday. See now these kinds of events usually get absorbed. Plenty of clues provided in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Nov 24 2017
We see a strong resumption of the bull trend this Holiday week, with some important changes in its character. Historic volatility levels continue. Chart examples of price behaviors, and finding clues on your own.
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Market Observations as of Nov 17 2017
Mixed markets as tech strength rests and other sectors react. A Narrowing group of big leaders continues to drive these markets. Interesting Earnings reactions and chart examples of 'Gap-n-Go' and 'Gap-n-Fill' patterns. Options expiration paused many trends at the end of this week. Lots of chart examples and clues to observe.
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Market Observations as of Nov 10 2017
Markets pulled back a little this week, ending a 6 to 8 week string of up weeks in the major indexes. Earnings reactions drove Gaps that gave us some examples to study. Most strong sectors remain strong, as few trends have changed. One exception that is more bearish this week we look at. Economic growth indications weaken along with momentum over the past 5 weeks. Lots of clues again seen in the charts.
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Market Observations as of Nov 3 2017
The Bulls continue their run, and Tech continues to lead the way. Oil moves up as Gold and the US Dollar have stalled. Earnings and Earnings reactions continue to provide fuel, but with less velocity this week. The Homebuilders took a hit on Thursday which we look at how we reacted. Plenty of chart patterns to learn from.
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Market Observations as of Oct 27 2017
Bullish trend continues with a change in leadership as Earnings Mania spake strong reactions in Big Tech that even draws in the bystanders. Chart examples and follow up on past chart patterns studied. Objectives of the Top Down market evaluation process.
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Market Observations as of Oct 20 2017
Bullish trends continue in most markets, with slowing momentum in some areas and an explosive ending of this week in others as Quarterly Earnings continue. Examples of Top-Down Market Analysis used to find Opportunities early enough to capitalize on them.
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Market Observations as of Oct 13 2017
Markets saw the bull rally continue this week, but with a little less momentum. Some sectors continued at their strong pace, while others paused this week. The Breadth of this rally continues to be wide, as volatility remains low. A high speed event is evaluated to find out what may have happened.
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Market Observations as of Oct 6 2017
Markets continue the bullish trends, with changes in Strength and increasing Breadth. Looking at Sectors and selecting strength and opportunities. Head and Shoulders pattern example review. Example of using your imagination and thought processes to find opportunities.
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Market Observations as of Sept 29 2017
The quarter ended with a flurry of bullish activity in most markets. Significant economic indicators and broad participation encouraged the bulls. Consolidation patterns and their probabilities seen with examples. Money rotation continues to the bullish side.
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Market Observations as of Sept 22 2017
Mixed markets this week, with some sectors delivering new all time highs, while others remain flat, and some drop down to test for support. Second week money moving from Utilities into Industrials. Sector analysis leads us to stock selection as strength and weakness are found. Importance and purpose of Trailing Stops.
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Market Observations as of Sep 15 2017
Some Markets aggressively break out from last week's consolidation while others did not. Quadruple expiration this Friday and Apple new product event Tuesday provided unique opportunities for Options traders. Examples of my favorite pattern and Objectives of learning Top-down analysis explained.
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